Penn State's decision to fire a winning coach, James Franklin, in favor of a potential 'great' one, carries a history of risk and uncertainty. The trend of replacing a successful coach with a less accomplished one has yielded mixed results, with only a handful of programs making significant strides. Among the 20 programs that fired a good coach from 2011-2021, only four saw improvement, while eight witnessed a decline in performance. Since 2021, the pattern persists, with nine programs firing winning coaches, and only one, TCU, showing meaningful progress under new leadership. The story of TCU's Gary Patterson and Sonny Dykes exemplifies the rare success in this narrative, as they reached a national title game within a year of the change. However, the majority of these replacements have led to either stagnation or regression, with four programs getting worse and four making minimal progress. The cautionary tale of Wisconsin's Paul Chryst and Luke Fickell highlights the potential pitfalls, as Chryst's dismissal followed a successful run, and Fickell's arrival has led to a decline in the program's performance. The history of these replacements serves as a reminder that the pursuit of greatness can be a risky endeavor, and the odds are often stacked against the teams that dare to make such changes.
