While the Chicago Bulls officially clinched their third-straight Play-In Tournament appearance this week, our eyes shouldn’t move off the lottery balls just yet.
Yes, if the Bulls make it through the Play-In and snatch one of the final playoff spots, they will automatically drop out of the Top 14. But the truth is they still have a much higher likelihood of finishing on the outside looking in, as Basketball-Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report currently gives them just a 27.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Indeed, as long as the Bulls aren’t the favorite to clinch a playoff series, we have to continue to pay close attention to the lottery standings. The odds have a chance to shift quite a lot over the final six games of the regular season. Multiple teams are separated by only a game or two in the league standings, and how the water settles could end up meaning a lot come May.
How Could the Bulls’ Lottery Odds Still Change?
As of publishing, the Chicago Bulls hold a 34-42 record and are thus 10th in the NBA’s lottery order. The team sat in 9th for weeks, but their loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder dropped them below the Miami Heat earlier this week by a half-game. The Heat were then able to add to their advantage with a victory over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night, giving them a one-game cushion.
The Bulls do hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Heat after winning their first meetings of the regular season. Through the lens of potentially hosting a Play-In Tournament appearance, this is good news. Through the lens of lottery odds, however, this could end up working against them. Something important to remember is that regardless of what happens in the Play-In, the lottery odds will be based on the regular-season records of non-playoff teams.
In other words, let’s say the Bulls finish behind the Heat in the regular season standings but beat them in the first round of the Play-In before losing in the final round. They would still go into the lottery with better odds than Miami despite beating them in their single-elimination battle. So, with that in mind, if the Bulls are going to finish 9th or 10th and not miraculously move into the 7th or 8th spot, it’s likely in their best interest to just finish 10th. If you’re going to have to win two games anyway, you might as well accept the slightly better lottery odds in the (likely) event that you fail to make the playoffs.
Speaking of which, Eastern Conference teams aren’t the only ones to keep an eye on over this final week and a half. The Bulls are actually sandwiched between two Western Conference teams in the lottery standings. And this includes one of the teams they are about to play.
The Portland Trail Blazers currently hold the 9th-highest lottery odds and come to the United Center on Friday night. If the Bulls drop this game, the two will be tied. Phoenix is on the opposite side of Chicago and holds an identical 35-41 record with Miami. Considering their fight for the final Play-In spot in the West, one would hope they stay ahead of the Bulls and do not shrink their lottery odds further. However, the Suns’ upcoming schedule is absolutely brutal. The Celtics, Knicks, Warriors, and Thunder will make up four of their final six games.
To put everything more simply, only 1.0 game separates the Bulls from having the 9th-best odds or the 12th-best lottery odds. I know that may not feel like a huge difference, but (as I always say) every lottery ball counts when you’re a rebuilding organization looking for future cornerstones!
Anyway, to get a better idea of where things stand, I’ll drop the full lottery picture below. Shoutout to Tankathon for tracking everything so nicely!
Chicago Bulls & NBA Lottery Odds as of March 12, 2025 (via Tankathon):
- Utah Jazz (16-61) – 14.0% (52.1% Top 4)
- Washington Wizards (17-59) – 14.0% (52.1%)
- Charlotte Hornets (19-57) – 14.0% (52.1%)
- New Orleans Pelicans (21-55) – 12.5% (46.1%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (23-53) – 10.5% (42.1%)
- Brooklyn Nets (25-51) – 9.0% (37.2%)
- Toronto Raptors (28-48) – 7.5% (32.0%)
- San Antonio Spurs (32-42) – 6.0% (26.3%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (33-43)– 4.5% (20.3%)
- Chicago Bulls (34-42) – 3.0% (13.9%)
- Houston Rockets via PHX (35-41) – 1.8% (8.5%)
11. Miami Heat (35-41) – 1.7% (8.0%)
13. Atlanta Hawks via SAC –1.0% (4.8%)
14. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5% (2.4%)
